Before I get into the match proper, permit me a few words about Federer’s excellence. To call Roger Federer great would be an understatement. He has excelled amid a highly competitive field for a long time. Excelled, too, is an understatement. Every generation a few players rise to the top and win a bulk of the majors. Federer has done this and then some. He has appeared in TWENTY-TWO straight Grand Slam semifinals. Within this streak, he has lost in the semi only 3 times. For many players — even very, very good players — to reach a semi or two is the mark of a successful career. As an example, take Fernando Gonzalez (Gonzo), a Chilean player who possesses the most powerful forehand on the Tour, this monstrous smash where his whole body seems to plow through the ball. He’s been in the top 25 for much of his career, and has spent lots of time in the top 10, even. He’s been playing since 2000 and has made two semifinals or better in Grand Slams. Andy Roddick, one of the premier players of his generation, has made 10 semifinals or better. Even the great Nadal — who could drop dead today and go down as one of the all-time legends — has made “only” 11 semifinals. Oh ya, and Federer also had two majors in his belt — already more than just about any player on tour not named Nadal — BEFORE the streak even began. Sheesh. Tennis is a sport that rewards consistency. You can paste, destroy, eviscerate an opponent in one set — but then you have to do it again, and again. Tennis, more than any other sport, operates like a typewriter: you type a line (or play a set) and then CHING! it’s back to the new, fresh line/set. Sure, Tiger dominates the golf Tour. But there’s no effin’ way he finishes top 4 in every single major 22 times in a row. Likewise, LeBron’s playing at a near-otherworldly level in basketball these days. If he can keep that up and totally dominate (we’re talking triple-double season averages) AND win the Finals at least every other year (while making at least the semi every year) for 6-7 years, then we’re in Federer territory. Joe DiMaggio’s 56 game hitting streak is the measuring stick against which all other types of sports consistency are measured. Pete Rose had a 44 game hitting streak in ’78, but that’s close but still well short of DiMaggio. He had 12 games to go, each more pressure-filled and media-stormy than the last. Well, Federer has 22 straight semis. The next highest straight semis run is TEN. And even ten is seen as an almost incomprehensible streak. So many factors to account for: 1) radically different playing surfaces, each favoring a different style; 2) no injuries can happen, and the pro tennis tour is one long grind, and everyone is a little banged up all the time; 3) one inconsistent match and you lose and go home; 4) run into one opponent who’s either categorically better than you or is just playing out of his mind and you lose and go home. Even the great Nadal won the Aussie Open but then lost in the French Open (and I might point out that the probable best clay court player ever didn’t make the semis before losing), then sat out Wimbledon, and then made the semis in the US Open. By all accounts, that’s an amazing year of tennis. But, uh, his streak is currently one, not twenty-two. Federer definitely feels the pressure — he’s admitted to so much before — but he’s reached a place where people EXPECT him to make the finals, every time. And the crazy thing is that he does do that, time and again, so often that it’s not longer a big deal; we’ve sort of lost track of (or become numb to) how wildly difficult that is
But Federer lost the US Open final to Juan Martin Del Potro, as we all know now. I like Del Potro. He’s tall, surprisingly mobile, still improving, and he can just whack the bejesus out of the ball. And he’s only 20. At 6’6″ and not completely grown into his body yet, he sort of looks like a tall, lurking goon out there. He has steely, fierce eyes and a mouth that’s about 3 times too small for his otherwise enormous body. And, in the end, this kid straight-up outplayed Federer.
It didn’t look like that was going to be the case — not at all — at first. Federer lit up Del Potro in the first set, breaking his first service game, and cruising to an easy first set victory. Del Potro was nervous, clearly, and Federer was unleashing his ridiculous full-court game: silky winners, loopy slices, hard-angled volleys, deceptive drop shots, rallies thought out 10 shots in advance, the kitchen sink, and a partridge in a pear tree. Federer doesn’t have the strongest forehand on the Tour, but his is the most dangerous. (Federer’s forehand or John McEnroe’s net game are probably the two greatest tennis shots of all time.) David Foster Wallace memorably called it “the great liquid whip.” He can hit the ball all over, with different speeds, spins, and angles. When he’s “on,” Federer will never hit the same shot twice in long rallies — not just because he’s hitting the ball to different places, but because he’s like a pitcher with a warehouse full of pitches, using every different one to screw with a batter’s rhythm. One reason why Federer is so damn successful is that he plays in front better than anyone. He’s already better than you anyway. And then he gets a lead and never looks back. His ability to dominate and have that positively reinforce his game creates a feedback loop that usually leaves his opponent buried beneath his majestic shots. Previous to this match, Federer was 167-4 when winning the first set; at just around 98%, rarely is anything in sports that certain.
But he lost. How? Why? He lost 3-6, 7-6 (5), 4-6, 7-6 (5), 6-2. When Federer clubbed Del Potro in the first set, I sat back and prepared for a repeat of last year’s US Open final, when Federer shellacked Andy Murray, who, like Del Potro, is a fine young player who is very good and will be great, only he wasn’t quite ready to take on the Grand Master on the big stage. Cue up straight sets victory, something to the tune of 6-3, 6-4, 6-2. But a few things happened that undercut that highly probable outcome.
Federer’s serve was an inconsistent as I’ve ever seen it. He’d go whole service games without getting his first serve in once. And he, one of the most regular, unflappable servers out there, kept on double-faulting — 11 total, many at critical junctures. This is a problem because a) as he’s grown older and wiser he’s used his serve to win big, crucial points. He has this creepy ability to be at a worrisome 30-30 score on his serve and then, in about 20 seconds, serve two straight aces to get out of the jam. He served FIFTY aces against Roddick in this year’s Wimbledon final; that’s over two full sets worth of points alone! So he wasn’t getting bailed out by his first serve against Del Potro. Which meant lots and lots of second serves, which is a problem because….
Del Potro has probably just passed Gonzo for the strongest forehand in tennis. I’ve never seen anything quite like it. Federer’s forehand is so deadly because he can do about 20 different things to the ball at any given time. Nadal’s punishes opponent with recurrent vicious topspin bashes that rise and fall like demonic parabolas and then kick up reeeeal high. Unlike most hard hitters, Del Potro’s monstrous forehand comes out of nowhere. You rarely see him wind up and then uncoil his body. Gonzo, for example, usually does this; but he hits it so hard this sort of “tell” doesn’t really matter. Del Potro hits a flat, spinless rocket that seemingly comes out of nowhere. But he’s already smart enough to have figured out that he should rely on this weapon but use it wisely. He’s completely capable of hitting the ball back and forth, with various degrees of power and spin (much like most other pro tennis players), but then, often with little-to-no warning, he will just CRUSH the ball. His forehands are easily over 100 MPH. There are faster players than Federer (Nadal and Monfils come to mind) but he’s still world-class fast AND has the best all-court movement in tennis. And Del Potro would lace these forehands and make Federer look ungainly and unprepared. Often a hard-hit winner will be both sufficiently fast and far-away enough that any attempts to get to it will be futile. What was so creepy about Del Potro’s winners on Federer were that they were sometimes 4-5 feet away — a laughable distance for pro players who are so good, so fast, and so smart that they patrol the 27-foot baseline as easily and you and me breathe. You lunge in the direction of the ball and stick out your racquet and you’ve covered the 4-5 feet pretty easily. But Del Potro’s winners were so eyepoppingly fast that Federer couldn’t even manage that sometimes. Sometime in the second set Del Potro seemed to have said “fuck it, I’m a big guy with a menacing forehand. I’m already down to the greatest, so I’m going to swing away and see how that goes.” And it went quite well for him. Federer normally has a preternatural ability to play to his opponent’s weaknesses; but last night he hit to Del Potro forehand over and over again. Part of it is understandable: once DP started smoking he would sometimes bombard Federer so fiercely that Federer would scrabble around just trying to stay alive, shot after shot, until he’s hit an amazing winner or for an error (sometimes) or DP would finally crush a ball he couldn’t retrieve (more often). Most great tennis players are tall enough to get some height advantage for the serve (there are no Maradonas out there), but short enough to that their height isn’t an encumbrance. Ivo Karlovic is a 6’10″ behemoth who can wallop a serve as hard as anyone. But, at 6’10″, if he’s not serve-and-volleying he looks like a bird with clipped wings trying to take off while patrolling that baseline. As many disappointed NBA scouts know, big players don’t always move that well. Del Potro is 6’6″ — about as tall as they come in tennis — and moves remarkably well. Federer has had trouble with Nadal because Nadal is so damn fast and gritty: Federer has to hit 3-4 winners just to hit a “real” winner — not an easy task for anyone, even Federer. Del Potro is not as impressive a defender as Nadal, but at 6’6″ he can run, lunge, and bat back just about any ball. Moreover, the single deadliest shot in DP’s arsenal is the running forehand. If a ball’s hit out to his forehand wing he will run to it and use his momentum to turn his hips, torso, and shoulders through the ball and simply demolish it. Federer hit waaaay too many balls out to DP’s running forehand. And, unsurprisingly, many of them back hard and unplayable.
Federer did get outmuscled and was not serving well, but, in spite of that, he had several chances to win the match. Looking back, that’s what was so improbable: the first set aside, at some point DP started to dominate rallies and (I daresay) even intimidate Federer. But, just like in the epic Wimbledon final against Nadal in ’08, Federer still — in spite of being outplayed — had chances to win. And, well, he just didn’t convert them. Federer’s loses in Grand Slam finals (well, not counting the ones where Nadal annihilates him on clay) always show the same problem: an inability to convert break points. I don’t know the exact number, but he was something like 6-for-27 in that category. He had his chances and just couldn’t convert them, for whatever reason. He had Del Potro by the throat in the second set and then DP slipped away and . . .
Federer lost tiebreakers. This was even more surprising than his crappy overall service game. Federer does lose tiebreakers, sure, but he has this eerie ability to win tiebreakers when they really matter. If the chips are on the line, don’t bet against Fed in tiebreakers — Nadal and Roddick found this out the hard way. I figured that Federer was going to win the second set tiebreaker and then snap Del Potro over his knee in the third. Well, he lost that tiebreaker, the 7-5 score making it look a little closer than it was. Federer then broke Del Potro’s serve to win the third set. (Late in the third you could tell Federer’s blood was up because he got into a pissy argument with the chair umpire about Del Potro taking way to long to decide whether or not to challenge calls. He said something to the effect of “don’t tell me to be quiet. I don’t give a shit. I’ll talk if I want to talk, ok??” Federer typically glides around out there like a Mako shark, and he barely sweats even in intense matches. And he certainly doesn’t do anything coarse like berating the umpire. The kid was getting to Federer.) So Federer’s back up 2-1 and I’m thinking, well, Del Potro’s really shown us something but there’s just no way Federer is losing this match now. A dicey fourth set goes to another tiebreaker. I’d have bet the farm on Federer winning that tiebreaker. It’s just what he does; he is always slightly better than his opponents when it really matters, and that’s the difference at this super-high level of competition. Well, he’s normally like that. Again he lost the tiebreaker. But, again, I wasn’t completely worried. Now it was a fifth set, one winner-take all set. Fed’s won the US Open 5 times in a row; Del Potro had never played in a major final.
What happened next was shocking. Del Potro just walked all over Federer. It wasn’t that Federer lost gas. He just got punched in the jaw and blinked. Del Potro was a beacon of confidence, smashing forehand winners, serving accurately, and showing no signs of nervousness. (And this was the same player who was distinctly overwhelmed by the occasion and Federer’s game in the first set.) When Federer’s feeling it he can do anything. It’s simply spectacular. I can acknowledge that tennis fans might not like or want to root for a player who seems to win everything, but when Federer’s playing his top tennis — which he often is — he offers us one of the most exquisite kinetic displays out there. I find myself gasping at the TV sometimes. One of Federer’s flaws is that if an opponent fights back tenaciously, he will sometimes simplify or downsize his game. The wizardry that makes Federer Federer all but disappears. He will still hit gorgeous shots, but they seem less purposeful, less intricately crafted. For the first 1.5 sets Federer smothered Del Potro by using the whole court. Early on he was something like 8-for-8 on net points. At some point he stopped coming to net. Instead he’d play baseline tennis — which he’s completely capable of doing — but his shots would either go astray or would be too safe (and often within the orbit of DP’s furious forehand). Federer doubted his game last night; he had that harried, vacant look in his eyes of an athlete who WAS playing well but now is in the middle of a nasty slump. I’ve watched enough sports to have seen this face many, many times. (I’ve felt the emotions that lie behind that face when playing sports as well, as most have, and we all know how crippling they can be.) Thing is, I rarely see that face on Federer. Nadal can bring it out in him, sure. But Nadal’s ability to do that always made sense to me, as he has this freakish ability to never, ever give up on a point, and makes Federer hit great shot after great shot and you can feel Federer’s frustration ebbing through the television. “What do I have to do to beat this Nadal guy??”, you can almost hear him say. Del Potro was different. He ran down a lot of balls like Nadal and hit a lot of nasty forehand winners like Nadal, but DP lacked Nadal’s sweaty determination. Not that DP wasn’t determined: what I mean is that Nadal’s on court determination could probably move mountains if properly conducted. Instead of that almost maniacal gumption, Del Potro just strutted in and outplayed Federer. Put differently: when Nadal flummoxes Federer I usually think “if Nadal didn’t play like Nadal — if he didn’t do everything just like he does, if one or two variables were different — Federer would probably walk all over him.” Whether that’s true or not, that’s what I think. I think a lot of things broke in Del Potro’s direction last night, but he simply beat Federer. What I thought then was “that’s a young prodigy beating a wily almost-old veteran.” Del Potro rattled Federer, and Federer fell apart. This happens ALL THE TIME in tennis. If you watch a lot of tennis — like me — you will see many slo-mo “I see it coming on the horizon” train wrecks. This happens so rarely to Federer, especially in the biggest matches. And Del Potro wrung one of ‘em out of Fed last night. As a Federer fan I was sorry to see him lose, but I was transfixed by this Argentine’s monster forehand and stone-cold resolve.
One last thought: even when Federer was down 5-2 in the fifth set and serving, I thought “this isn’t over yet.” The hardest thing to do when you’re a young rising player, I’ve heard time and again from former pros, is to serve out a big match. Shaky knees, dry throat, short breathing, tense muscles. You double fault or hit a few bad groundstrokes and suddenly YOU’RE on tilt, slowly blowing it. Del Potro was a bad mofo up until this point, but I wasn’t sold on his performance until he served out the match. But Federer, having not done enough un-Fed things yet, lost his serve and let DP dodge that pressure situation. Fed would have had to break DP twice, sure, but nerves would have been a factor and weirder things have happened. Instead, Federer fell behind, double faulted, and then hit a routine shot too long. Del Potro falls down into a heap that quickly turns into a snow angel or starfish. Match over. Well done, Del Potro: you beat Nadal and Federer in consecutive days. Hard courts are your favorite, and you will terrorize the US Open for years to come!